Advance short - term prediction of the large Tokachi - oki earthquake , September 25 , 2003 , M = 8 . 1 A case history
نویسندگان
چکیده
1International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556, Russia 2Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1567, U.S.A. 3Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1567, U.S.A. 4Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University, 3-20-1 Orido, Shimizu City, Shizuoka 424, Japan 5Russian Federation State Research Center, State Research Institute of Aviation Systems, 7, Victorenko st., Moscow, 125319 Russia
منابع مشابه
Surface latent heat flux and nighttime LF anomalies prior to the Mw=8.3 Tokachi-Oki earthquake
Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) is an atmospheric parameter proportional to the evaporation from the Earth’s surface. SLHF has been found to exhibit an anomalous behavior in the epicentral region prior to several coastal earthquakes. Sub-ionospheric low frequency (LF) radio sounding measurements have shown its potentiality for the short-term earthquake forecasting since the last decade. The ano...
متن کاملShort-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics
Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). Using this methodology the San Simeon earthquake in Central California (magnitude 6.5, Dec. 22, 2003) and the Tokachi-Oki earthqua...
متن کاملSpatial pattern in stress drops of moderate-sized earthquakes on the Pacific Plate off the south-east of Hokkaido, Japan: implications for the heterogeneity of frictional properties
We show that the spatial heterogeneity in the coseismic displacement of large earthquakes likely reflects the spatial characteristics of the frictional properties and that it can be inferred from the stress drop of moderate-sized earthquakes. We analyzed stress drops of 686 earthquakes with magnitudes of 4.0 to 5.0 off the south-east of Hokkaido, Japan, and investigated the spatial heterogeneit...
متن کاملAnalysis of seafloor seismograms of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake sequence for earthquake early warning
[1] Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) algorithms estimate the magnitude of an underway rupture from the first few seconds of the P-wave to allow hazard assessment and mitigation before the S-wave arrival. Many large subductionzone earthquakes initiate 50–150 km offshore, potentially allowing seafloor instruments sufficient time to identify large ruptures before the S-waves reach land. We tested an...
متن کاملThe SanrikuOki, Japan, Earthquake of December 28, 1994 Mw 7.7 Rupture of a different asperity from a previous earthquake
Fault geometry, depth, and slip distribution of the Sanriku-oki earthquake of December 28, 1994 (Ms 7.5) are estimated from seismic waveforms, geodetic measurements, and tsunami waveforms, and compared with those of the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw 8.2), the most recent large earthquake in the epicentral region. Seismic wave inversions indicate a shallowly dipping thrust type mechanism and t...
متن کامل